Pimienta’s self-fulfilling prophecy

In the same way that there is the placebo effect, there is also its opposite, which is known as nocebo. A worsening of the symptoms of a disease when the patient believes that what has been applied to him has harmed his health. At least superficially, saving the distances, it seems that it could hide behind the worsening of UD Las Palmas and its sudden improvement.

The Gran Canarians have remained consistently throughout the season, with both Mel and Pimienta, as one of the teams that shoots the most at the rival goal and receives the fewest shots from their opponents. Before starting the next day number 35, the yellows are the third team that shoots the most, after Valladolid and Almería and the second that they shoot the least, with only one more shot received than Almería.

Going into detail, and including the goals in the equation, on average the yellows need 10.4 shots to score a goal, right in the category average. While their rivals closest to promotion use fewer shots to achieve them: Tenerife, 9.5, Oviedo, 8.6 and Ponferradina, 8.8. Hence the importance in maintaining the rate of fire of the yellows.

Since García Pimienta sat on the UD bench, the Gran Canarians have shot on goal 15 times per game, 1.75 more than when his predecessor was there. In the last three games, the yellows have increased 16 shots per game and this has been accompanied, paradoxically, by a slight improvement in the ratio of shots to goals. One point every 9 shots. He even beat his best mark of the season against Leganés, with 1 goal every 3 shots.

As an informative pill, their next rival, Amorebieta, registers a ratio very similar to yellow, 10.6 shots for each goal. Although a lower number of shots, 11.58 shots.

In terms of shots received, the yellows have gone from facing Mel at 9.67 shots per game to 11 with García Pimienta. However, while before they conceded a goal every 7.73 shots made by their rivals, since the change of coach it has gone to 8.75. That is, the rivals need to make one more shot to score. Which translates into 0.25 goals less per game. From 1.25 it has dropped to 1. Figures very similar to those of the streak in which he is immersed.

Compared to their closest playoff rivals, Tenerife concede one goal every 13.67 shots, Oviedo one goal in 12 and Ponferradina one goal in 10.6. Well above the yellows who are the fourth worst in the category in this ratio. Well, it only improves Real Sociedad B, Alcorcón and Amorebieta, who average a goal every 7.6 shots.

Almería is also worth a reference, with practically the same number of shots received as Las Palmas, conceding a goal every 11.2 shots. Three more than the average of the yellow season.

Thus, without a very significant improvement in these numbers, Las Palmas may have done so in the fine line. For example, away from home he has conceded fewer goals since the arrival of the Barcelona coach. Three in five games and none played. One from a free kick, another from a corner and another after a throw-in.

Although his aim has not increased, beyond the Leganés match with one every 3 shots, Las Palmas has begun to win. And to go back. And if he needs to shoot more, it seems he shoots more, against Ponferradina when he broke his season high with 24 shots, of which 17 got past the defense’s blocks and 10 found Amir’s goal.

Or perhaps what García Pimienta expected that victory that slipped out of his hands against Lugo has happened. About three points with which the team “changed the chip to get hooked on some positive results and get us to the top.” The same is why the yellow coach said as a self-fulfilling prophecy “I am convinced that we will hook one or two positive results. This goes up. I’m convinced”. Likewise, the defeat against Burgos had a nocebo effect and that of Valladolid a placebo.